The final round of the SMARTECH Super Rugby Pacific regular season is upon us - and with five teams now locked in for finals, three sides are now in the running for the remaining finals spot.
While the make up of the top three will be decided this Friday in Dunedin and Canberra, the remaining three fixtures all play a significant role as to who takes fourth, fifth and sixth on the ladder.
Catch every game of SMARTECH Super Rugby Pacific live and on-demand via Stan Sport.
Rugby.com.au gives you a complete makeup of every possible finals scenario: who is safe, who is at risk of losing a finals position, and who is still in the running.
The Fijian Drua and Western Force were already out of contention going into Round 15, but after their last gasp loss to the Crusaders in Christchurch, the Highlanders' slim chances of finals are now also up in smoke.
However, with the Force on the bye, both the Highlanders and the Drua could climb off the bottom of the table if both manage wins over the Chiefs and Reds respectively - which would hand the Force the wooden spoon.
Next matches: Blues (A)
Best possible finish: 6th
With the final round here, the equation becomes very simple for the Waratahs: beat the Blues, by any means necessary.
But they will also need to rely on other results again.
With their match in Auckland happening first, should they win, they will also be hoping that the Hurricanes can maintain their red hot form and defeat Moana Pasifika in Wellington. Should the Tahs win in Auckland for the first time since 2009 and the Hurricanes get up, the Tahs will sneak into sixth place.
Next matches: Waratahs (H)
Best possible finish: 6th
The equation is also quite simple for the Blues: beat the Waratahs, by any means necessary - and ideally, with a bonus point.
Should they do so, like the Waratahs, they will be hoping that the Hurricanes will defeat Moana Pasifika in Wellington. If Moana Pasifika get up however, a bonus point win over the Waratahs becomes critical for the Blues. With both sides on equal points, ranking is then decided by the number of wins.
If Tana Umaga's side win with a bonus point, the Blues will miss out based on the number wins - despite having a better points differential.
Next matches: Hurricanes (A)
Best possible finish: 5th
The side currently holding onto the last finals position, Tana Umaga's men sit one bonus point win behind the Reds, so could actually climb to fifth. However, thanks to their huge loss to the Chiefs, their points differential of -87 makes it unlikely for them to overtake the Queensland side.
It isn't mathematically impossible, as Moana Pasifika beating the Hurricanes this weekend would get them equal in wins - but to finish fifth, they'll need a massive, 40+ bonus point win over the Hurricanes, while the Reds will need to lose by at least 50 to the Drua in Brisbane - which is unlikely.
However, to secure a maiden finals appearance, if Moana defeat the Hurricanes with a bonus point, they will be over the line - and shut out the Blues and Waratahs at the same time.
The Blues have less wins, so if they beat the Waratahs and end up on the same number of competition points as their cross town rivals, Moana Pasifika will qualify by having one extra win.
Next matches: Drua (H)
Best possible finish: 4th
Yep, even despite losing to the Hurricanes in Brisbane, Moana Pasifika's massive loss to the Chiefs means the Queensland Reds are home and hosed for finals.
The Blues can equal the Reds on competition points - but can't overtake them on the ladder as the Reds currently have two more wins than their Auckland counterparts. The Waratahs can only achieve a maximum of 31 points, meaning they can't overtake the Reds either.
Moana Pasifika can overtake the Reds if they pull off an almighty record win over the Hurricanes, and the Reds have to suffer a record loss to the Drua. This is an unlikely scenario, but not impossible - but even in this case, the Reds will only drop down to sixth - meaning the Queensland side will make finals regardless.
The Reds can still climb to fourth however if they defeat the Drua by any result possible (ideally with a bonus point). As the last match of the whole regular season, ironically, they'll be hoping Moana Pasifika can defeat the Hurricanes in the game before them: in that scenario, a victory over the Drua would see them climb above the Wellington side.
Next matches: Moana Pasifika (H)
Best possible finish: 4th
The Hurricanes are safe for finals - and while they can't catch any of the top three, a win over Moana Pasifika in any form will likely be enough to consolidate fourth spot - as in that scenario, even a Reds bonus win over the Drua will likely need the Queensland side to win by at least 50 to have any hope of overtaking the Wellington side on points differential.
However, if the Hurricanes lose to Moana Pasifika and the Reds defeat the Drua, they will drop to fifth - but the Blues and Waratahs can't catch them, so finals is still confirmed.
Next matches: Crusaders (H)
Best possible finish: 1st
The Super Rugby Pacific top three will be decided on Friday night, with all three sides doing battle.
The Brumbies can't finish any lower than third, meaning a home qualifying final is already secured for them and the two Kiwi sides above them. However, there is a lot still to play for.
If the Chiefs defeat the Highlanders in Dunedin, the Hamilton side will be guaranteed to finish at the top of the table - making the Brumbies-Crusaders clash a sudden death hit out for second place (and a potential home semi-final).
However, if the Chiefs lose with no losing bonus point, the match becomes a tussle for the top of the table, with the loser finishing third.
If the Chiefs go down, but pick up a losing bonus point, the Brumbies will need a bonus point win over the Crusaders to finish in first - a win without a bonus point will see the Chiefs and Brumbies finish equal on wins and competition points, but the Hamilton side will finish first with the better points differential.
Next matches: Brumbies (A)
Best possible finish: 1st
The Crusaders, like the Brumbies, will be watching the Chiefs result in Dunedin. Should the Chiefs defeat the Highlanders, the Crusaders clash with the Brumbies becomes a hit out for silver. Should the Highlanders prevail, the match becomes a hit out for first - with the loser in Canberra guaranteed third.
Unlike the Brumbies, the Crusaders don't need to worry about any bonus point results in Dunedin. With only one point separating them and the Chiefs, all the South Island side need to do is beat the Brumbies by any means necessary.
Next matches: Highlanders (A)
Best possible finish: 1st
The Chiefs' win over Moana Pasifika has not only helped with points differential, but also locked down a guaranteed top two finish.
The Hamilton side now find themselves in an enviable position: not only is a home qualifying final guaranteed, but a potential home semi final as well.
With the Crusaders one point behind and the Brumbies three points behind, the Chiefs have a very simple goal - defeat the Highlanders by any result, and they will finish first.
Even if the Crusaders defeat the Brumbies with a bonus point win in this scenario, it will not be enough to usurp the Chiefs, as the Hamilton side have the best points differential in the competition (+214) by a considerable margin.
Even if the Chiefs lose to the Highlanders, a potential home semi final is likely secure - in this scenario, whoever loses in Canberra will finish third, and the winner will overtake the Chiefs, who will drop to second.
If the Chiefs pick up a losing bonus point over the Highlanders, they can still finish first. In this situation however, the Brumbies have to defeat the Crusaders without a try bonus point.
It leaves Clayton McMillian's side in a strong position once knockout rugby commences.
