With only two rounds of the SMARTECH Super Rugby Pacific regular season to go, the question of finals calculations becomes the key focus among supporters.
With such a close season throughout 2025 and only six finals spots up for grabs, the makeup of finals becomes a tight affair - especially with the Brumbies, Chiefs and Crusaders opening up a sizeable lead at the top of the ladder.
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Rugby.com.au gives you a complete makeup of every possible finals scenario: who is safe, who is at risk of losing a finals position, and who is still in the running.
With both sides sitting more than a bonus point win behind sixth-placed Moana Pasifika - and both having byes in Rounds 15 and 16, respectively - the Fijian Drua and Western Force are the first sides out of the race for finals.
Next matches: Crusaders (A), Chiefs (H)
Best possible finish: 6th
Yes, despite sitting in last place, the Highlanders are still a mathematical chance of making finals - however, they will need a lot to go their way.
Firstly, they will need to achieve bonus point wins against both the Crusaders and the Chiefs. They will also need Moana Pasifika to lose both their games against the Chiefs and the Hurricanes.
Lastly, they will need the Force to beat the Waratahs, then the Waratahs to beat the Blues in the final round - and the Auckland side cannot pick up a losing bonus point.
Next matches: Force (A), Blues (A)
Best possible finish: 6th
The Waratahs can still make the bottom half of the finals ladder despite their current form, but similar to the Highlanders, with an unfavourable points differential, they are also relying on other results as well as their own to get in.
Firstly, they will need to defeat both the Force and the Blues to climb back into contention, and must pick up at least one bonus point win from those two games.
However, even with that in consideration, they will be heavily tied to the results of the Reds, Hurricanes, and Moana Pasifika. The ideal scenario will be the Reds defeating the Hurricanes with no losing bonus points of any kind, and the Chiefs defeating Moana Pasifika in Round 15.
Following this, if they pull off their two wins, they will be hoping Moana Pasifika can defeat the Hurricanes in Wellington in Round 16 - without the Canes picking up a losing bonus point. Do this, and they will finish with 31 points - and sneak in by one competition point.
Next matches: Bye, Waratahs (H)
Best possible finish: 5th
The Blues have a far simpler equation - firstly, with the bye this weekend, they will hope the Reds can defeat the Hurricanes to keep their finals hopes alive, with no losing bonus point. They will also be hoping the Chiefs can defeat Moana Pasifika, with no losing bonus point.
In Round 16, they must defeat the Waratahs with a bonus point win - which get them to 33 points and move them up to fifth. Should the Hurricanes defeat Moana Pasifika, the Blues will likely finish in sixth, but a draw or Moana Pasifika win (with no bonus points of any kind), could see the Blues finish as high as fifth.
Next matches: Chiefs (A), Hurricanes (A)
Best possible finish: 4th
Moana Pasifika have done extremely well to get themselves into sixth place - but now comes the toughest hurdle of their season.
Firstly, they will need wins against the Chiefs and Hurricanes to get them to at least 36 competition points, and they will be keeping an eye on the Reds-Hurricanes clash in Round 15. A draw or Reds win would be ideal for Tana Umaga's men - in combination with a Moana win over the Chiefs, they would climb to fifth.
If they defeat the Hurricanes in Wellington and the Blues lose to the Waratahs, they will make their maiden finals appearance. Add to this, with two Moana wins, if the Reds lose to the Drua in Brisbane, Moana Pasifika could climb as high as fourth on points differential.
Next matches: Reds (A), Moana Pasifika (H)
Best possible finish: 4th
As we climb the ladder, things get a lot simpler. The Hurricanes will be keeping an eye on the Reds and Moana Pasifika - with the Blues' bye giving the men from Wellington a one match advantage.
Fortunately for the Canes, they have to play both in their last two weeks. A win over both Queensland and Moana Pasifika will see them finish in fourth with an unbeatable 38 points for all in the hunt behind them.
If they lose one game but win another, they will hope the Chiefs can defeat Moana Pasifika in Round 15 or for the Waratahs to defeat the Blues in Round 16. This result would see the Hurricanes finish with a minimum of 34 points, which would be enough to secure one of the three remaining finals placings.
However, if the Reds beat them in Brisbane, Moana win their two games, and the Blues defeat the Waratahs, the Canes could finish as low as seventh.
Next matches: Hurricanes (H), Drua (H)
Best possible finish: 2nd
The Reds have a far simpler equation when it comes to locking down finals - beat the Hurricanes this weekend and they will lock in fourth place with 36 competition points.
However, should they lose both to the Hurricanes and the Drua, the Blues beat the Waratahs with a bonus point win, and the Hurricanes then defeat Moana Pasifika, the Reds could finish as low as seventh and be out of the race. If Moana Pasifika also defeats the Chiefs in this scenario, they could also leapfrog the Reds.
Alternatively, a Chiefs loss could also benefit the Reds should the Queensland side manage two bonus point wins in their final two weeks.
In this scenario, the Reds achieve a maximum of 42 competition points. If the Crusaders lose to both the Highlanders and the Brumbies with no losing bonus points and the Chiefs lose to Moana Pasifika and the Highlanders with no losing bonus points, the Reds could finish as high as second.
Next matches: Highlanders (H), Brumbies (A)
Best possible finish: 1st
It's a tight finish between the top three, with the Crusaders and Chiefs likely to leapfrog the Brumbies, with the Canberra side having their bye this weekend.
The Crusaders need to win all their games to secure first, but they will also hope the Chiefs will slip up against either Moana Pasifika and/or the Highlanders. Should they finish with a loss to the Brumbies but a win over the Highlanders, their finishing spot will also depend on the Chiefs form.
Regardless, the worst possible place they can finish is fourth (with a Reds surge), meaning finals are secure.
Next matches: Moana Pasifika (H), Highlanders (A)
Best possible finish: 1st
Points differential works in the favour of the Chiefs, and if they pull off two bonus point wins in the next two weeks over Moana Pasifika and the Highlanders, they will be guaranteed a first-place finish, achieving a maximum of 53 competition points.
Should they lose both the Moana Pasifika and Highlander games, the Crusaders lose both their games, and the Reds win both their games with bonus points, they could drop as low as third. Crusaders' wins in this scenario could see them drop to fourth.
Regardless, finals are secure for the men from Hamilton.
Next matches: Bye, Crusaders (A)
Best possible finish: 1st
The bye is a double-edged sword for the Brumbies, with a moment to rest and get players back also an opportunity for the Chiefs and Crusaders to overtake them.
However, the Brumbies are already safe finals-wise, with the Reds' possible maximum of 42 points not enough to overtake their ACT counterparts. This means the lowest the Brumbies can possibly finish is third, and it makes the equation simple for them: defeat the Crusaders, and they are guaranteed a finish of second or higher.
They will keeping an eye on the Chiefs - if the Hamilton side lose to the Highlanders and/or Moana Pasifika, a Brumbies win in Canberra would see them finish first. A Crusaders loss to the Highlanders would also help in his regard.
If the Chiefs lose both their games, however, and the Crusaders beat the Highlanders, the match in Canberra could be a sudden death clash - with the winner finishing top of the table.
