The good news for England, ahead of a playoff-path deciding clash with France, is that the French are not a flaming rabble at this World Cup.
Which makes them more predictable.
The bad news for England that with incoming coach Fabian Galthie on board and with some dangerous Fijian talent, France are returning to their rugby roots.
Which makes them less predictable.
Welcome to one of the more fascinating last round clashes at the 2019 Rugby World Cup.
With Argentina having crashed in pool C, both France and England are already qualified for the quarter-finals but the game will determine who tops the pool. And ergo, who likely faces Australia in the quarters in Oita.
The loser will take on Wales, the likely winner of pool D.
(Disclaimer: Australia and Wales have to first get past Georgia and Fiji respectively)
MONKEY OFF BACK
After England were knocked out in the pool stages in 2015, guaranteed finals qualification with a round to spare has dislodged a giant primate off the back, and there was a more relaxed air about the English camp in Tokyo this week.
There is even some talk Eddie Jones will rest some star players; with Billy Vunipola the most likely given he’s had scans on a twisted ankle.
But England’s players and coaches were quick to point out on Monday that they’re are not easing off this week, for three key reasons.
The first reason why is 113-year history with France, and just like every Bledisloe Cup game counts regardless of the life signs of the rubber, any time “Le Crunch” is played, no-one is talking “friendly”.
The second is neither side want to join Australia in having to write new history at this World Cup, by winning the thing after losing a pool game. Every competitor at a World Cup talks about the value of “momentum” and grinding to a halt a week out from the first final is not ideal.
The third is that England would rather play the Wallabies in Oita than Wales.
After a brief flirtation with running footy a year or two back, England’s game has reverted to the defence-pressure format this year and, unlike Ireland, it’s got them chuffing along nicely at the tournament.
Jones knows this game is well-suited to beating the Wallabies - defend the lights and punish Aussie errors/ill-discipline. Check the Wallabies record against England in the last four years: played six, lost six.
Wales are a team built similar to England, and are quite capable of blunting Jones’ plans with the same approach.
Wales have beaten England two of their last three starts.
QUARTER CALCULATIONS
Asked if he had a preference for a quarter-final opponent, England hooker James George said: "No preference. The big thing and the point that has been made to us is that the focus has to be on this week.
"The focus is purely on us getting ourselves better and focusing as much we can and preparing as well as we can for France.
"Whatever comes off the back of that is great, it’s great that we have managed to qualify.
"But that’s not what we’re thinking about. Momentum is a massive thing in a tournament like this so we want to make sure we put in another good performance and keep building for the quarter-finals.”
Preparing to play against France can be a tricky beast, however, particularly at World Cups.
France are perennially under-estimated at World Cups, and they’ve been runners-up at three of them: 1987, 1999 and 2011.
But in each of those tournaments, it turned out France did best when most people thought they’d gone off the rails and were no hope.
In 1987 they drew with Scotland in the pool stages before upsetting Australia in the semi-final.
In 1999, the team were Five Nations wooden spooners and lost to Tonga, and New Zealand 54-7, in the lead-up. Les Bleus then famously beat the Kiwis in the semi-finals.
In 2007, the World Cup hosts lost on opening night to Argentina and then beat the Kiwis again in the quarters.
In 2011, things went massively pear-shaped in the pool rounds when they lost to Tonga and were smashed 37-17 by the Kiwis.
But after the anarchic team staged a coup and took over the coaching from Marc Lievremont, the French made it all the way to the final and were unlucky to lose it to the Kiwis, 8-7.
FRENCH FORM
There is almost an inverse form guide with France: the worse they appear to be travelling, the more dangerous they are.
But at the 2019 World Cup, so far Les Bleus appear pretty settled, with three wins from three games and the coaching staff in no peril of being overthrown.
Even England were keen to talk them up on Wednesday night, despite the fact France came within a whisker of losing to a fast-finishing Tonga a night earlier.
"When you say they haven’t been impressive, they’re still fighting for (top spot),” George said.
"They haven’t lost a game and yes, they might not have put the performances together they wanted to but I am sure there’s a feeling in that camp that they’re building alright.
"They seem to step up at the right times, so we have to make sure we’re right on it for this game.”
France lost 44-8 to England in the Six Nations in February but there have been changes to the set-up since, some subtle and some overt.
Galthie, the Toulon coach, was added to Jacques Brunel’s coaching team and will take over as head coach next year.
The ex-Test halfback is being credited with steering France away from a stodgy, rugby-by-numbers team and reverting them to their flamboyant selves, where flair and counter-attacking unpredictability is always on.
"I think his (Galthie) addition has been good for France,” said England scrum coach Neale Hatley.
Lethal in attack and solid as a rock under the high ball 💪
— Rugby World Cup (@rugbyworldcup) October 6, 2019
Elliot Daly was in fine form yesterday 👏@EnglandRugby #RWC2019 #ENGvARG pic.twitter.com/W37EeIXq3S
"There are more ideas so I think they have been progressing definitely. They had a good win against Argentina and have moved through the gears since them. So yeah, I think they have improved since we last played against them at Twickenham, without a shadow of a doubt.”
One of the guys who can cause plenty of damage is Alivereti Raka, a Fijian winger who was naturalised for France this year and is impressing with his form at the World Cup.
RAKA BALL
Many in England still remember when the powerful 24-year-old scored a hat-trick playing for Clermont against Saracens in 2017, in London.
"I did play in that game unfortunately,” George recalled.
"We didn’t know too much about him before the game, we obviously we’d been watching the tapes and he’d done some pretty special things in the Top 14.
Raka... cette anguille ! 💥💥#FRAvTGA #RWC2019 pic.twitter.com/nVBKlajmfQ
— Rugby World Cup (@RugbyWorldCupFR) October 6, 2019
"That day he was exceptional. If you give him a free reign, he can be really destructive. He is a very, very good player and we probably got it pretty wrong that day. He is a threat that we need to be aware of this weekend.”
Brunel, meanwhile, said he's unsure why the team has been starting well in wins over Argentina, USA and Tonga but falling away late. Anxiety, perhaps.
"Maybe by having qualified," Brunel said. "That will liberate us a bit."
Uh-oh.
