Nations Championship: Breaking down every team’s most likely finishing position

Tue, Nov 3, 2026, 4:50 AM
Nathan Williamson
by Nathan Williamson
Look back at the Wallabies' best Nations Championship 2026 tries from Rounds 1-3.

The inaugural Nations Championship resumes as the 12 teams head north for the final three Tests of the series.

All teams are fighting for position ahead of the inaugural Finals weekend, with the two conferences set to face off across six matches in three days.

Watch every second of the Nations Championship live and on demand via Stan Sport.

The All Blacks and Springboks are in a tight battle to top the Southern Hemisphere, whilst it is wide open for the North.

Rugby.com.au gazes into the crystal ball and predicts where each team will finish and who will face who come that final week.

SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE

South Africa (15 points, +81)

vs Italy, France, Ireland

The Springboks are the current front-runners for top spot, holding the points-difference advantage over the All Blacks.

A full strength France and South Africa loom as their toughest tasks, finishing with back-to-back bangers away from home.

Rassie Erasmus’ men will be favourites for each of these games, but might need bonus points to match it with the All Blacks.

Prediction: Second (29 points)

New Zealand (15 points, +51)

vs Scotland, Wales, England

Like South Africa, perfection is what is needed by the All Blacks to qualify for the final.

The draw slightly favours the Kiwis more, heading to Murrayfield first, a ground where they have never lost, followed by the Welsh and English.

The All Blacks seem to have found their feet during the Bledisloe Cup, and the chance to freshen up only spurs them on further.

Prediction: First (30 points)

Australia (8 points, +29)

vs England, Scotland, Wales

The Wallabies are a tough team to read, leading both Ireland and France before falling away in the second halves.

A thumping win over Italy leaves them positioned as the best of the rest in the hunt for third spot.

They’ll go in favourites against the Welsh whilst will back themselves to nab a scalp against England or Scotland (or even both)

Prediction: Third (15 points)

Argentina (7 points, -2)

vs Ireland, Italy, France

Argentina could be left to rue their last minute loss to England as the injuries start to mount up.

To climb into the top three, they need a big win over Italy and to try and nab a win over either Ireland or France, who will both be gunning for top spot.

They’ll be hoping the Aussies slip up as well, hoping to make that leap when it counts

Prediction: Fourth (13 points)

Japan (4 points, -26)

vs Wales, England, Scotland

Japan will target a big win against Wales to boost their chances of a top game.

They’ll come in in solid form, having claimed the Pacific Nations Cup after wins over the USA and Fiji.

Prediction: Fifth (7 points)

Fiji (0 points, -96)

vs France, Ireland, Italy

Jake White’s first real test as coach will come this month as he takes on some of Europe’s heavy hitters.

Italy will be their best chance of victory, who have been decimated by injuries.

If they do finish sixth, they’ll be a dangerous team for any of the Northern Hemisphere hopefuls to face

Prediction: Sixth (2 points)

NORTHERN HEMISPHERE

France (12 points, +41)

vs Fiji, South Africa, Argentina

France loom as the most likely to be featuring in the inaugural final as they finish with a solid trio of matches.

They’ll start favourites against Fiji and Argentina, with the Springboks clash a potential preview of what’s to come.

The Six Nations champions are a much different team to the one that came down South, welcoming back a host of stars

Prediction: First (24 points)

Scotland (11 points, +11)

vs New Zealand, Australia, Japan

The Scots did what they had to do in the July series to give themselves a chance at top.

But the next two weeks are tough, first dealing with a NZ side they’ve never beat at home, followed by the Aussies.

If they can take down the Wallabies and results go their way, they are an outside chance of finishing top

Prediction: Fourth (19 points)

England (10 points, +48)

vs Australia, Japan, New Zealand

England can recover from a poor Six Nations with a strong Nations Championship finish after wins over Fiji and Argentina.

The big win over the Fijians gives them the points-difference edge over either side, with the match this week against Australia a must-win.

They could potentially jump to top if they can upset the Kiwis, with the matches always delivering classics.

Prediction: Second (19 points)

Ireland (10 points)

vs Argentina, Fiji, South Africa

Ireland have a prime slate to make a late run, starting as favourites against Argentina and Fiji.

They’ll enter as comfortable favourites for both games, setting up a mouth-watering clash against the Springboks.

The Irish will need to run the table to rise up the ladder, with bonus points potentially key to separating themselves with the rest of the pack.

Prediction: Third (19 points)

Wales (5 points, -42)

vs Japan, New Zealand, Australia

This week’s match against Japan is critical for Wales, who need a win to steady the ship.

It gets tougher from there, facing the likes of New Zealand and Australia, both of whom will likely have a lot to play for position-wise.

They need at least one win to avoid the wooden spoon and keep them clear of Italy.

Prediction: Fifth (9 points)

Italy (0 points, -96)

vs South Africa, Argentina, Fiji

Italy have been the surprise packets for the wrong reasons, dropping games to Japan and New Zealand before a heavy defeat to the Wallabies left them in limbo.

They’re currently in the midst of a massive injury crisis, with close to 16 players out for this month’s tour.

It starts horribly against South Africa, but they’ll be outside chances against Argentina and Fiji

Prediction: Sixth (5 points)

PREDICTED FINAL WEEKEND

Friday 27 November 

Sixth placed North v Sixth placed South: Italy v Fiji

Third placed North v Third placed South: Ireland v Australia

Saturday 28 November 

Fifth placed North v Fifth placed South: Wales v Japan

Second placed North v Second placed South: England v South Africa

Saturday 29 November 

Fourth placed North v Fourth placed South: Scotland v Argentina

First placed North v First placed South: France v New Zealand

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