Two rounds to go in the 2018 National Rugby Championship, and we’ve still got more teams in contention for the playoffs than we have playoff spot available.
Brisbane City’s impressive win over their Queensland Country cousins last week really shook things up around the NRC top four, and it makes the ‘ifs’ and ‘maybes’ all the more interesting heading into this weekend’s Round 6.
In golf they call the second-last day "moving day", where contenders have to move themselves to the top of the leaderboard to be a chance of victory.
As far as the NRC is concerned, consider this second-last weekend "moving round".
SATURDAY: Fijian Drua v Canberra Vikings; Lautoka, Fiji
This is undoubtedly the match of the round, with the first-placed Drua hosting the third-placed Vikings and with both teams trucking along nicely with a four-and-one record, but separated by just two points. The chance to take points off each other will be crucial in their respective runs to the playoffs, too.
A win for the Drua will push them out to at least 23 points and just about cement their hold on top spot heading into the final round, where they head to Perth to take on the Western Force.
We know that the Drua are a different beast completely when playing in front of a parochial home crowd, and the prospect of heading to Fiji for a knock-out semi-final would be daunting for any team.
Equally, that’s their motivation to ensure they don’t drop their first home game of the year; a loss would see the Vikings overtake them, at least – the Force could, too, with a win over the Melbourne Rebels, which would mean Fiji would have to knock the Force off in Perth in the final round to secure a top two finish.
Should the Vikings do what no other team has managed in 2018 to date and beat the Drua on home soil, they would take the top two advantage into a final round clash with Brisbane City in Brisbane. Lose to Fiji, however, and the Viking risk being overtaken by both Queensland Country and Brisbane City this weekend.
Queensland Country v Sydney Rays, Gold Coast
The winless Rays will be looking to break their duck in 2018, but their ask doesn’t come much tougher than having to topple a wounded Queensland Country side coming off two straight losses.
With the Rays conceding twice as many tries as they’re scoring themselves, Country will undoubtedly see this match as an invaluable bonus point opportunity, which would catapult them back into home final calculations by virtue of Fiji and Canberra playing immediately before them.
The players might be shielded from the result, but Country coach Rod Seib will almost certainly know before his match kicks off what the Drua-Vikings result means for his side, and where they can jump to with a big win at Bond University, where they’ll share the billing with the fourth leg of the AON Uni 7s.
A Country loss could see them drop out of the top four completely, should Brisbane City beat NSW Country on Sunday, while it could also see the Rays climb out of eighth spot on the table. They could leapfrog NSW Country on for-and-against, or outright with a bonus point win - which would take the clubhouse lead for upset of the season.
SUNDAY: Melbourne Rebels v Western Force, Geelong
Last week’s loss to Canberra has almost certainly ended Melbourne’s playoff chances for 2018, which means they can take on the role of ‘chief pain’ for the finals-bound Force this weekend at Kardinia Park in Geelong.
I’ve mentioned almost weekly that the Rising are a better side than their table standing suggests, and so it will be important for them to ensure they finish the 2018 campaign on a good note. It would also make me feel a bit better about my view of them, but that’s by-the-by.
Like Fiji, the Force can also put themselves in prime position to secure an intimidating home semi-final, where they (and their Perth Spirit predecessors) have lost just once in nearly three seasons in front of their wonderful McGillivray Oval home crowd.
In fact, depending on the Drua-Vikings result, the Force could be leading the competition by Sunday evening, which would really put them in the box seat for the finals.
But there’s more to this clash: with two successful home defences now under their belt, the Force are now compelled to put the Horan-Little Shield up for challenge, home or away.
Having held the Shield all season after the Spirit claimed it in 2017, the Force will be determined to maintain their grip for another week, which would in turn set up a mouth-watering winner-takes-all Shield title match against Fiji in Perth next Saturday.
Should the Rising secure the Shield, they would set up a similar all-or-nothing Shield defence against the Rays the following week in the Victorian western Central Highlands city of Ballarat.
NSW Country Eagles v Brisbane City, Camden
The Camden Rugby Club makes its NRC-hosting debut on Sunday, where the Eagles will be desperate to record their second win of 2018, which in turn would put City’s playoff aspirations on very shaky ground.
The Eagles could jump to sixth with a win and a Melbourne Rising loss to the Force, and would give them plenty of confidence heading into the annual grudge-match with Queensland Country in Round 7.
A City win and a Queensland Country loss to Sydney could see them jump to fourth, while a bonus point win could even shoot them to third, assuming the Vikings returned from Fiji with no competition points at all.
Brisbane City host the Vikings next Sunday in the final round, so the knock-out rugby has effectively started a fortnight early for Mick Heenan’s side.
And that has to be the mentality; keep stringing the wins together, and they probably extend their season.
It all makes for a cracking penultimate round to the NRC season
