Match Preview - Qantas Wallabies vs Wales

David Pocock will give the Wallabies a lift tonight.

What a difference a couple of conversions make.

If Ronan O’Gara had missed his in Dublin and Matt Giteau had got his in Edinburgh, instead of talking about the Qantas Wallabies salvaging some pride in Cardiff this Saturday – we’d be talking about the possibility of an historic Grand Slam.

The first in 25 years.

But O’Gara’s did go over at Croke Park to give Ireland a 20-all draw and Giteau’s missed at Murrayfield to see the Men of Gold slump to a shock 9-8 loss to the Scots – their first in 27 years.

That Wallabies loss has brought on much handwringing and teeth gnashing from Rugby pundits and fans all over the globe.

And rightly so. Robbie Deans’ young team had promised so much against England, when they pulled off a fighting 18-9 victory at Twickenham, and most of the match against Ireland.

The loss to Six Nations also-rans Scotland, themselves re-building under new coach Andy Robinson, came as a bolt from the blue.

And it’s difficult to remember one team dominating a match as much as the Wallabies did in Edinburgh without finishing on top.

What Wallabies fans would’ve given for a bit of All Blacks sleight of hand, a la Tokyo and London, or Springbok biff and barge, as there is no doubt that if placed in the same situation the Men of Gold’s Bundaberg Rum Tri-Nations rivals would have run away with the game.

But these are the lessons, the killer instincts, that Deans’s young squad is still developing.

Remember this is a team with a new Captain and with out a third of what was their first choice XV just six months ago: previous captain Stirling Mortlock, inside centre Berrick Barnes, lock Nathan Sharpe, prop Al Baxter and flanker Phil Waugh.

Those names would feature highly in any Australian Test XV of the decade and replacing that kind of experience – as Deans well knows – is difficult.

Which of that quintet features in 2010 in the gold jersey will be interesting : the injury prone Barnes and Mortlock will no doubt be back (if fit), but for Sharpe, Baxter and warrior Waugh, there national futures are less certain and will depend greatly on the players emerging to challenge them : Sharpe having less of those than the other two.

You can also throw in to that list of missing names Lote Tuqiri and Timana Tahu who are no longer available for Wallabies selection.

But in the absence of all these senior players, new players have emerged:

Quade Cooper, although still lacking consistency, has grown considerably off and on the field on this tour, to be a serious long term option at either flyhalf or inside centre;

Will Genia, George Gregan without the backward shuffle, looks like making the No.9 jersey his own for as long as he wants it;

and most impressively of all – David “Bam Bam” Pocock who has come from nowhere to go past both Waugh and the legendary George Smith to become the first choice openside flanker.

Indeed by the time the 2011 Rugby World Cup rolls around it is probable that the likeable Zimbabwean-born flanker will be challenging the great Richie McCaw for the title best openside in world Rugby.

So amongst the doom and gloom there are positive signs and as some have rightly pointed out it is wrong for this Wallabies team to be compared to the 1984 vintage as that was a team at the very top of their game with many players at the peak of their careers, while this Wallabies side is still very much on an upward curve.

And have no doubts – it is an upward curve.

The surest proof of that is the demolitions of Gloucester (36-5) and Cardiff (31-3), the last one breaking a 101-year hoodoo, and the performance in those games of fringe Test candidates flanker Matt Hodgson, lock Dave Dennis and centre Tyrone Smith.

It’s clear Deans is developing a new squad with depth as well as breadth.

But the “Jekyll and Hyde” nature of Deans’s squad is what is so frustrating to Wallabies watchers young and old.

However that is the hallmark of a young squad who have yet not developed that clinical edge to close out games or edge the close ones. That will come.

Wallabies fans were spoilt for so many years as they watched their team doing just that, edging the close ones had become the norm with players such as David Campese, John Eales, Stephen Larkham and Tim Horan – who were not just some of the greatest Rugby players in Australian history but the greatest of all time.

When the big play was needed these players would invariably produce it.

Whether it was a last minute penalty from Eales, a magical run from Campo, a drop goal from Larkham or a no look pass from Horan – the Wallabies would find a way to win the game.

Indeed in a different part of Dublin back in 1991 a Wallabies team with Horan and Campese fell behind to a fired up Irish team in the quarter final of the Rugby World Cup.

With two minutes to go it looked like the Wallabies were gone.

But with coolness and composure they worked their way down field before a stunning run and pop up pass from Campo saw Michael Lynagh dive over in the corner for the winning try.

The Wallabies of course went on to win the Rugby World Cup that year and they were very similar to the English team of 2003, who perfectly executed the Jonny Wilkinson field goal in those final precious moments in Sydney, and the 1999 Wallabies for whom Larkham kicked that once in a life time field goal.

Even the Springboks of 2007,who closed out the final ten minutes of that’s year Rugby World Cup final in Paris with a plan almost brutal in its simplicity and infinitely disciplined in its execution, also had that championship quality.

These were all champion teams and the Wallabies of 2009 clearly have a long way to go till they even begin to aspire to reach that mark.

But as great 1984 Grand Slam-winner Mark Ella recently noted there is a long way to go till the 2011 Rugby World cup – two whole seasons in fact – and it would be a game man to say that the Wallabies won’t run out as one of the two teams in the RWC final at Eden Park in Auckland on Sunday October 23^rd,. 2011.

But the match before us is all that occupies the Wallabies minds now and the challenge of Wales who went through their own barren patch a few years ago before clearly re-establishing themselves as a northern hemisphere heavyweight.

Walesstarted their November campaign slowly with a loss to the All Blacks and a narrow victory over Samoa before hitting their stride with a comfortable victory over Argentina last weekend.

And in a worrying sign for the Wallabies, crossing twice for the home side was British and Irish Lions winger and 2008 IRB World Player of the Year – Shane Williams.

The Welsh have a solid scrum, an effective if not dominant lineout, mobile and rugged loose forwards, experienced inside backs and in players like Williams and centre Jamie Roberts, a star of the 2009 Lions tour, outside backs who have the ability to cut teams to ribbons.

They also have a very imposing and valuable 16^th man – the passionate, 75,000 strong Millennium Stadium crowd, who seemed to get Wales home 21-18 in the corresponding fixture last year against a more experienced (and reliable)Wallabies team.

However Wales suffered their own injury  blow on the eve of the Test, losing inspirational captain Ryan Jones with a back injury.

Andy Powell will move across the back row to replace Jones at No.8, with Dan Lydiate promoted to the starting line-up at blindside flanker but Jones loss certainly is a boost for the visitors. Prop Gethin Jenkins takes over as captain.

But for Australian Rugby fans this game is all about the Wallabies and the result will depend on which Wallabies team runs out on to the field.

The powerful, dangerous and determined team that took the field at Twickenham or commanded the game for 70 minutes in Dublin – or the scattered, jittery Wallabies who had no answer to Ireland in the last ten minutes at Croke Park and failed to put an outgunned (albeit desperate) Scottish team to the sword.

Some good news for the Wallabies was the quintet struggling with injuries - centre Digby Ioane, scrumhalf Will Genia, No.8 Wycliff Palu, flanker and captain Rocky Elsom and prop Benn Robinson - all made it through Thursday's conatct session and were included in the side Deans announced late on Thursday night (AEDT).

Deans showed faith in his team that went down to Scotland making only three changes in the starting XV : fit again Ioane in for Edinburgh try scorer Ryan Cross; powerful young flanker David Pocock, who was rested for Scotland, comes in for George Smith; and in form mid-week captain Dean Mumm forcing his way in to the run-on line-up after commanding performances against Gloucester and Cardiff in place of Mark Chisholm.

There are also changes on the bench where Richard Brown, Sekope Kepu and Cross all drop out of the match day 22 and in comes experienced Western Force prop Matt Dunning and Waratahs utility back Kurtley Beale, who will make his Test debut if he gets on the field in Cardiff.

But whichever names are penned in on the team sheet the result won’t be determined by the outward appearance of the players – it will be determined by what is going on inside.

Are they confident, composed and ready to do their best – or are they insecure, nervous, tentative and likely to be blown off the park ?

And make no mistake – if the Wallabies are just a little bit off their game this Welsh team will smell blood.

All Wallabies fans remember with dread those final moments in Wellington when the Wallabies went walkabout and were put to the sword by the All Blacks. A longer version of that in Wales would be unbearably painful to watch.

We can but live in hope – and trust it will be the real Men of Gold running out on to the turf in Cardiff ready and willing to give absolutely everything they can to the gold Jersey and go out on a high.

Or will they be as one Man of Gold Mailbox correspondent cruelly described them mid-week as “15 yellow bunnies caught in the glare of a Scottish (Welsh) lorry” ?

So many questions thrown up by a fixture that is nigh on impossible to pick – although sense and reason would suggest the home team. But since when do those two factors determine Rugby Tests ?

What odds Matt Giteau having the chance to win it with a kick in the final seconds ? Over to you Robbie, Rocky and co.

The Qantas Wallabies team to play Wales in the James Bevan Trophy Test at the Millennium Stadium, Cardiff, on Saturday 28 November, 5.15pm kick off (4.15am, Sun 29 Nov, AEST), is:

15. Adam Ashley-Cooper (Brumbies), 14. Peter Hynes (Queensland Reds), 13. Digby Ioane (Queensland Reds),12. Quade Cooper (Queensland Reds),11. Drew Mitchell (NSW Waratahs), 10. Matt Giteau (Brumbies), 9. Will Genia (Queensland Reds),8. Wycliff Palu (NSW Waratahs), 7. David Pocock (Western Force), 6. Rocky Elsom (Brumbies, captain), 5. Dean Mumm (NSW Waratahs), 4. James Horwill (Queensland Reds), 3. Ben Alexander (Brumbies), 2. Stephen Moore (Brumbies), 1. Benn Robinson (NSW Waratahs).

Run on reserves:16. Tatafu Polota-Nau (NSW Waratahs), 17. Matt Dunning (Western Force),18. Mark Chisholm (Brumbies), 19. George Smith (Brumbies), 20. Luke Burgess (NSW Waratahs), 21. James O’Connor (Western Force), 22. Kurtley Beale (NSW Waratahs)

Wales:James Hook, Leigh Halfpenny, Jamie Roberts, Jonathan Davies, Shane Williams, Stephen Jones, Dwayne Peel, Andy Powell, Martyn Williams,Dan Lydiate, Luke Charteris, Alun-Wyn Jones, Paul James, Matthew Rees, Gethin Jenkins (capt). Reserves: Huw Bennett, Duncan Jones, Jonathan Thomas, Sam Warburton, Martin Roberts, Andrew Bishop, Tom James.

Date:Saturday, November 28

Venue:Millennium Stadium

Kick-off:17:15 (4.15AM Sunday AEDT)

Referee:Wayne Barnes (England)

Assistant referees:Romain Poite (France), Peter Allan (Scotland)

Television match officials: Geoff Warren (England)

Assessor:Patrick Robin (France)